Business View Caribbean - April 2015 99
have had in the period 2012-2014, three years of posi-
tive economic growth, notwithstanding extensive and
prolonged maintenance activity in the energy sector.
The non-energy sector in particular, has shown contin-
ued strength and buoyancy;
• This economic growth is taking place in the context
of job creation and stable inflation rates.
In the period January-September 2013 the unemploy-
ment rate averaged 3.6 percent and the average for
the year as well as for 2014 is projected to maintain
the same level. The inflation rate had averaged 5.1
percent in 2013; but as at June 2014, the average rate
has fallen to 2.8 percent - the lowest in 10 years;
• The fiscal deficit is on course to meet our 2016 ob-
jective of bringing the fiscal accounts into balance;
notwithstanding the budgeted deficit of $6.357 billion
for fiscal 2014, a surplus of $1.967 billion had been
realized as at the end of June 2014;
• Public sector debt remains at a sustainable level at
43.0 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with
the external debt service ratio remaining in single dig-
it; these debt ratios are within well-established inter-
national benchmarks;
• The balance of payments remains robust with the
generation of consistent surpluses on the current ac-
count and with steady flows of private direct invest-
ment. As a result, gross official reserves stood at
US$10.0 billion in December 2013, covering approxi-
mately 12 months of imports; by July 2014, the gross
official reserves had reached US$10.2 billion;
• Gross foreign direct investment has increased ro-
bustly on an annual basis since 2010 and is
pro-
jected at US$3.3 billion for 2014;
• Substantial financial buffers have been built up to
meet contingencies; apart from our healthy official
reserves, the Heritage and Stabilization Fund now
amounts to US$5.6 billion;
• The rating agencies Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s
Investors Services and Caribbean Information and
Credit Rating Services Limited, have maintained the
country’s excellent investment grade ratings; and
• Access to international capital markets have been
facilitated by those ratings with Trinidad and Tobago
being able to raise in December 2013 a US$550.0 mil-
lion 10-year Bond which was 10 times oversubscribed.
In short, as a nation, we are better off today than 4
years ago.
Medium-Term Outlook
In the context of other similarly-placed emerging and
developing countries our economic performance has
been excellent. Moreover, the foundation has been
laid for a sustainable recovery. From this position of
strength our economy is undergoing an important tran-
sition. Over the medium-term 2015-2017, the growth
momentum is expected to be maintained and the bal-
ance of payments is projected to continue to generate
surpluses and increasing levels of reserves.
Notwithstanding these successes, we recognize that
there are many underlying issues which need to be ad-
dressed if we are to sustain our growth momentum.
Having dealt with the issue of the return to growth
and the financial problems generated by the failure of
Colonial Life Insurance Company Limited (CLICO) and
Hindu Credit Union (HCU) we are now turning our at-
tention over the medium-term to the reform measures
necessary to transform our economy.
GOVERNMENT & PUBLIC SECTORS
