recommends strengthening regional integration in areas such as infrastructure, trade facilitation and regulatory convergence. REGIONAL TRADE PERFORMANCE IN 2025 The International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean 2025 report indicates that the value of regional goods exports from Latin America and the Caribbean will grow by 5 percent in 2025, similar to the increase seen in 2024 (4.5%).This projected expansion is attributed to a 4 percent increase in the volume exported and a 1percent increase in prices. Meanwhile, the region’s imports are seen rising by 6 percent, as a result of a 7 percent increase in volume and a 1 percent decline in prices. Among the region’s main trading partners, China is expected to account for the biggest export increase by value in 2025, with regional shipments to that country rising by 7 percent, due mainly to growth in the sales of meat and soybeans as well as higher prices for minerals such as copper. Exports to the European Union are seen growing by 6 percent, and those to the United States by 5 percent. With regard to intraregional trade, it is expected to grow by around 1percent. Because extraregional shipments are forecast to experience more dynamic growth than those within the region, the intraregional trade ratio is seen declining slightly, from 14 to 13 percent. Meanwhile, it is estimated that the value of regional services exports in 2025 will rise by 8 percent, which is one percentage point below the growth registered in 2024. Despite this, these exports continue to outpace goods exports in value terms. TECHNOLOGY INTENSITY AND ADVANCED HUMAN CAPITAL INTENSITY In its third chapter, ECLAC’s annual report explains that the production and exportation of high-technology or human capital-intensive goods and services is a key factor for driving productivity and competitiveness.The production of high-technology goods has a multiplier effect on economic growth and skilled job creation. The same is true of trade in services, in particular modern services (that are digitally delivered). Increased internationalization of these sectors could help to overcome the trap of low capacity for growth affecting the region. However, the report concludes that the region’s participation in these segments continues to be limited. Its share in the global export of high-technology goods systematically remained below 5 percent, and in the case of modern services, below 2 percent. On a regional level, Mexico accounts for 85 percent of the export of hightechnology manufactures, while Brazil leads in the area of modern services (33%). The current context of redefined globalisation and reconfigured global value chains – in which the dispute for leadership in strategic industries and technologies plays a central role – opens up new opportunities for the region to reposition itself in knowledge-intensive markets. To this end, ECLAC recommends a dual strategy: fostering productive policies that would increase regional participation in advanced goods and services exports, while also strengthening the institutional capabilities needed to design, coordinate and sustain these policies, in their technical, operational, political and prospective dimensions (TOPP capabilities). 12 BUSINESS VIEW CARIBBEAN VOLUME 12, ISSUE 11
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